It’s gotten better since I left.

Article in question: “Higher education: Is it really the next bubble?”

This initial statement is something that I would immediately respond to with an emphatic chorus of “Yes!  Yes!  Holy f$&% yes!”  Reading the article, however, Lexington clearly has set out to question the matter more deeply.  Fantastic.  I trust The Economist, and I usually appreciate their opinions.  Today: not a day I appreciate The Economist.

I would give an emphatic “yes” to the title because that is the emotion it triggers for me.  I see many many fellow classmates having the same feelings about their education.  One of the opening lines of the article describes the idea of a higher ed bubble: “The idea is that people are spending too much on higher education, taking on too much debt, and failing to get the reward they expect.”  I don’t know a single student who wouldn’t echo those sentiments.  It is a daily punch in the gut to joke around about tuition with my fellow school-goers: “Heh.  At least I’ll be able to pay off my debt when I get a fantastic job after graduation!”, a statement usually followed by chuckles.  And then deep sobs of grief.

No, there is no sobbing, but there is anxiety.  A friend of mine that I work with is a trained architect, just two weeks away from graduation.  He has sent many many job applications, but has not received any good news yet.  He does have freelance work lined up, but freelance work takes a month.  And, though people like to pay you after services have been rendered, an exception to that rule is rent.  The idea of getting by month-to-month leaves little to no room for tuition debt considerations.

The more frightening and ongoing story to me is of another friend and coworker.  He is a proficient software developer, also two weeks away from graduation.  He has filed 50+ job applications, has excelled in school, completes independent projects, and has endured several intensive interviews that have asked him to take tests or write code on-the-spot.  He should have a job, and he doesn’t.  Only his fellow developers with an “in” or a connection have jobs.

To me that seems precisely like spending too much on your education, taking on too much debt, and (especially) failing to realize the reward of your efforts.

This would indicate, in my admittedly limited view, that the bubble should indeed exist.

The article cites this graph as reasoning that education still pays.  The graph is as expected, and at first glance would seem to indicate that there’s no problem.  But, may I just point out a few things to you dear reader?

• 2.5% of people that can call themselves “Dr. Smartington,” and are truly doctors, do not have a job.  That seems wrong to me.
• The rate of unemployment is higher if you have a doctorate than if you have a professional degree.  All of the time and money you have invested into writing your doctoral thesis statistically has a higher chance of not paying off than if you had stuck with your professional degree.  That seems backwards.
• Additionally: when you get a job, congratulations on making $3 more a week.

There are more concerns than these with this graph (15% unemployment, for instance), but my main point is that the graph does not support the idea that there isn’t a education bubble.

Up to this point, I can take these points into consideration.  They are plain facts, after all.  But, the true opinion section of the article follows.

When I put the bubble hypothesis to Norton Grubb, professor of higher education at the University of California, Berkeley, his response in an email was that the bubble hypothesis was “ridiculous”.

No where in the following excerpt from Professor Grubb does he state the idea of a bubble is “ridiculous.”

[Education] has stopped delivering on the promise of a middle-class job = professions and managerial occupations, for which a BA was sufficient inthe 60s, and for which an MA is now necessary.  So this leads to education inflation = middle-class kids seeking MA degrees and professional degrees, where a BA might have sufficed a generation ago.

I do not write for The Economist (not a disclaimer), and I do not have my own style guide.  But I’m sure that’s a direct contradiction to the statement above it.  While it is true that a bubble is not precisely the same as inflation, do they not have similar effects on higher education?  Increases in inflation have a breaking point as well, where the model can no longer support itself and crashes to the ground, bringing all those currently involved down with them.

I don’t see any decline in the willingness of parents to sacrifice for their kids.

This is not my personal situation, but please, come to campus, have a coffee, and talk to some kids about who pays for their education, how far they are currently in debt, and how much their parents have decided, or are able, to contribute.  Speak to some parents who worked their way through college and assume it is still possible.  Ask a few kids what their parents thought of their parents’ “expected contribution” on the FAFSA (it’s laughably high for most families).

I’m also unsure how unaffordable college really is, as a general matter.

I respectfully ask you to shut up.  I’m pretty sure you don’t know what you’re talking about.

And now, some more enlightened comments from Frederick Hess:

First, the dollars in question are actually relatively small. The Project on Student Debt reports that nationally, the average debt for those graduating seniors who have taken out loans was $23,200 in 2008. […] 

 And about one-third of students graduate with no loans at all; they’re not included in these debt figures.

Just a few things here:

• People who consider $23,200 they owe and do not have a small amount of dollars are few and far between on a college campus.  Even fewer of them are enrolled students.  This is incredibly important for you to understand, Frederick Hess.
• The current year is 2011.  But I’m sure college finances have not changed at all since 3 years ago, have they?  If they have, I’m sure college hasn’t become more expensive since then.  That would be preposterous.
• Your last statement indicates that ~%60 of students graduate in debt.  That is a problem.  Anyone who considers that “the way it should be” or “the way it’s always been” or “the way it is” needs a smack in the face with a 2x4 and some lessons on economics, namely that one of the primary goals is to not be in debt.

I somewhat immaturely have noted that this article seems to be elitist, and displays an opinion that sucks.  I do think it is elitist to assume many of the points in this article; it certainly is in assuming that middle-class families can afford to pitch in enough money, that $23,200 two years ago is “relatively small,” and that the fact that you have a degree when you leave means the money will take care of itself.

Actually, that last bit is just kind of ignorant, which is why this “sucks.”

Sometimes the darkest thoughts are inspired by the innocence of a sunlit afternoon.

You and me…we know about time.

This, right here, this is childhood.

Oh no!  Poor hungry kittehs.  :-(

Awwww! Kitteh!

(via thatonegirlwithtwols)

LET’S JUST KEEP ON DANCIN’!

I kinda miss the rain.

Soundtrack to my morning commute.

In case you haven’t seen this beautiful thing.

thepoliticalnotebook:

A child demonstrator protesting against Gaddafi outside the Libyan Embassy in London February 20, 2011.   Photo Credit: REUTERS/Luke MacGregor

SOLIDARITY.

(Source: thepoliticalnotebook, via theatlantic)

mzriaspeaksometimes, giving it a shot.  Brace yourselves!

This vehicle has been sitting in this position since it crashed for (presumably) most of the night.

Finished this delicious thing tonight.